While the pandemic continues to leave its mark on the property market, rising interest rates signal a clear break from the conditions of previous years.

Alongside our latest interactive map on per sq ft residential values, here we provide additional context on the latest trends, with regard to regional variations, growth and the relative position of residential values vis-à-vis the core commercial property sectors.

Residential prices rise amid changing economic climate 

Despite the emergence of increasing economic headwinds during the first half of 2022, including rising inflation and increasing borrowing costs, the rate of average house price growth in H1 accelerated upon the latter part of 2021. According to ONS figures, average UK house prices increased by 6.0% in H1 2022, rising from 1.7% growth in H2 2021.

However, developments over the following summer months point to a cooling in house price growth over the second half of 2022 and into 2023. September was an especially mixed month for the residential market - just three days after interest rates were hiked to a 14-year high of 2.25%, the Government’s ‘mini-budget’ included a doubling of the Stamp Duty threshold to £250,000 alongside a substantially revised threshold of £425,000 for first time buyers.

Helpful though it is, the government’s package of support is unlikely to offset the impact of rising interest rates on the housing market. With an increasing number of forecasters expecting interest rates to reach at least 4% next year, high borrowing costs and possibly economic recession will, at best, curtail price growth. According to Hampton’s latest research, average UK house prices will ease down sharply in the second half of 2022 and end up flat for 2023 as a whole.

The pandemic continues to leave a mark 

While UK average house price growth was strong over the first half of 2022, there was considerable variation at the more local level. Housing market activity and price movements continue to be influenced by shifting preferences related to the pandemic. Many UK households have sought to take advantage of increased remote working by exchanging proximity to work with cheaper locations that offer more space and a quieter life.

Of the UK’s 378 districts, several of London’s more central and characteristically expensive districts have been hit hardest. The London Borough of Camden was the UK’s weakest performing location in the first half of 2022, with average prices contracting by 9.3% over the period. Notably, and in sharp contrast, relatively rural and reputedly idyllic locations are amongst the strongest risers in H1 2022. Eden in the Lake District was the strongest performer overall, with average prices increasing by a staggering 15.6% in the first half of the year.

But London’s pricing hegemony is undiminished

While average price growth in the capital has lagged elsewhere since the pandemic, as ever, Greater London remains by far the most expensive area of the UK. At the mid-point of 2022, average values in the capital equated to £699 per sq ft, 83% higher than the average for the South East, the second most expensive region of the UK.

That said, average per sq ft pricing in Greater London is skewed by its prime central districts, with Kensington & Chelsea boasting average values of £1,412 per sq ft. Outside of London’s central districts, average pricing more typically ranges from £500 per sq ft to £600 per sq ft, still well ahead of much of the South East region.

Beyond Greater London and the UK’s southernmost regions, average pricing is relatively uniform between other regions of the UK. The North East is home to the lowest average values, equating to £156 per sq ft, while average values for Wales, Yorkshire & the Humber, the North West, East Midlands and West Midlands all fall within a ‘ball park’ of £180 per sq ft to £235 per sq ft.

Intra-regional pricing variance

Beyond the extreme contrasts of Greater London, the East of England region also demonstrates a significant pricing variance between its constituent local authorities, standing at 55% in mid-2022. This reflects wide contrasts in levels of connectivity to London, with pricing in the well-known commuter towns of St Albans, Watford and Hertsmere averaging around £500 per sq ft, while more rural locations such as Fenland, Breckland and Kings Lynn averaged well under £250 per sq ft.

A COMPARISON WITH COMMERCIAL